Put Down the Shovel

Let’s face it, the NFL peaked and is in the declining phase of the Product Life Cycle.  For some time, the fan base was able to separate the play on the field from the drinking, drugging, driving under the influence, whoring and domestic abusing.  Right or wrong, the fans would tune in for the 3-6 hours of escape on a Sunday afternoon or Monday night.

As some of the gridiron heroes of the past began to publicize the long term physical effects of playing the game, mainly the arthritis and the need for knee and hip replacements, the fans took notice.  The news of the frequent concussions leading to CTE brain disorders and the validation of the studies supporting it signified the end of the NFL.  It was not a matter of IF it would end, but just a matter of WHEN.  With kids now being steered away from the sport, the farm systems will dry up and the best athletes will no longer be playing football.  The quality of play in 10 years will pale in comparison to today’s game.

What DOES this mean financially to the owners and players?

Those sold out stadiums will be under capacity and television viewership will decline as the product loses its quality.  As that happens, the revenue to the owners via ticket sales, merchandise and ad revenue will decline.  As the owners make less money, the player contracts will become less lucrative.  These dynamics were baked in a few years ago, so the idea has been to suck as much profit out of the product as it heads towards its demise.

Then along comes Colin Kaepernick to lodge a protest against what he sees as injustice in today’s American society.  He is a US citizen and he is within his rights to protest, but he made a huge public relations error by choosing to disrespect the US flag and the National Anthem as his form of protest. There exists infinite ways to lodge an effective protest, but he chose one that alienates the majority of paying customers.  The idea of a protest is to grab attention AND gain support for one’s cause.  He definitely received the attention, albeit not the desired attention.  As noted above, the fan base is capable of ignoring a lot of side issues in order to enjoy the entertainment escape of the NFL.  However, his actions were an “in your face, big FU” to the fans who were given the choice of supporting the “spitting on the flag” or displaying unconditional support for the USA.  I’m certain this was not the plan, but that’s how it unfolded.  The fans chose the latter.

Then we were witness to an even bigger mistake as the NFL did not recognize the dynamics and the crisis at hand.  The 49’ers, who had the most to lose with the opening of a brand new stadium, should have nipped it in the bud. They simply had to demand that their employee could protest whatever issue he desired, but it would not be done in such a way as to alienate the customers which is exactly what was occurring by sitting or kneeling during the playing of the National Anthem.

The rest of the owners and the commissioner exacerbated the situation by allowing it to continue.  Remember, the NFL is a consortium of owners.  What happens to one franchise can affect all and they have the ability to control the overall product.  The result of doing nothing was declining attendance and viewers turning away.  The customer demographic wasn’t buying this form of protest and decided to send the only message they could by exercising their collective purchasing power.

The NFL had a product which was already in decline due to the CTE issue, but now the downward curve on that decline was made steeper.

Those players who may have been able to cash in over the next decade and a half before the NFL went bye-bye have been kneecapped.  Today’s millionaire players have just displayed their nobleness by sacrificing the future earnings of other players who will never sign that lucrative deal and never have the opportunity to use their star power to affect social change.

It is likely that the damage done to the product is irreversible.  I only see one possible solution which I doubt will be employed. If I were the commissioner, I would demand a complete mea culpa from the protesters that, in hindsight, the FORM of protest was an error in judgment and that, henceforth, every player will be lined up on the sideline with hand over heart during the playing of the National Anthem.  This tactic would have the effect of telling the customers that the company is listening to them and that the product attributes are being aligned to their demands. 

To be clear, the NFL is done in the long run, but this public relations tactic could save the next decade’s revenue stream and profits.

To quote the famous American philosopher, Will Rogers:

“When you find yourself in hole, quit digging!”